Where Bidens poll numbers stand as he announces 2024 run

May 2024 · 4 minute read

Four in 10 Americans approve of how President Joe Biden is running the country, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll conducted in the days before he announced his campaign for reelection. Meanwhile, a majority of Republicans currently say they would vote for Donald Trump, even if he is convicted of a crime, but the former president has found little support beyond his base.

A lot can change between now and Election Day 2024. So far, Biden, Trump and a handful of Republican and Democratic candidates have declared their bids for the White House in 2024. Since becoming president, Biden’s popularity has dwindled among all but his most ardent supporters – not unlike Trump during his own presidency.

“It’s bad news for both of them,” Republican strategist Doug Heye said. “Nobody wants the rematch.”

biden-approval-line-chart-SITE

Chart by Jenna Cohen/PBS NewsHour

Biden formally announced his 2024 campaign in a three-minute video released Tuesday, asking voters to give him the chance to “finish this job.” In this latest poll, 78 percent of Democrats said they approve of how Biden is leading the country, along with 36 percent of independents and 8 percent of Republicans. Overall, 9 percent of Americans say they are unsure of how they feel about Biden’s performance as president.

Public approval of Biden’s job as president has languished in the 30s and the 40s for much of his time in the Oval Office, despite the nation’s improved economy and the COVID pandemic entering a new phase under his administration. Shortly before Trump announced his own reelection campaign in 2019, 42 percent of Americans approved of how he was doing his job. People in this latest poll were roughly twice as likely to say they strongly disapproved of Biden than they strongly approved of his work so far.

Biden’s agenda is popular, Democratic strategist Jalisa Washington-Price said, but Democrats need to “get disciplined in their messaging.” In the months ahead, as Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and other officials take to the road to praise the administration’s accomplishments so far, Washington-Price predicted, “You will see the rise in those numbers.”

Trump’s legal turmoil continues

On Tuesday, a trial begins in the first of a pair of lawsuits against Trump by former advice columnist E. Jean Carroll, who alleges he raped her in the 1990s. Trump also continues to be investigated in Georgia for his alleged interference in the 2020 election, and faces a lawsuit from New York’s attorney general alleging business fraud related to the Trump Organization. The Department of Justice has also appointed a special counsel to investigate classified documents and presidential records discovered at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort as well as any interference in the 2020 election or the Jan. 6 certification of Electoral College votes.

READ MORE: Are Trump’s legal troubles earning him Republican support?

While the 2024 presidential election is more than 18 months away, primaries begin in less than a year. Heye said Trump may have diehard supporters, but they only carry so much weight: “That core part of the base isn’t going anywhere, but they’re not the majority of the party.”

trump-run-bar-chart-SITE

Chart by Jenna Cohen/PBS NewsHour

Overall, 64 percent of U.S. adults said they do not want to see Trump become president again. That includes 92 percent of Democrats, 68 percent of independents and 27 percent of Republicans. At the same time, 34 percent of U.S. adults (including 71 percent of Republicans) want to see Trump get elected for a second term as president.

While Trump’s announcement that he would run again in 2024 was initially met with “some excitement among Republicans and Trump’s base,” Washington-Price said “you’re also going to see his numbers fall” as the GOP wrestles with “an identity crisis.”

Over time and across escalating legal actions against the former president, including an historic 34-count felony indictment, Heye said more Republicans think “Trump has too much drama around him, too much chaos.”

The Republican Party is increasingly on the lookout for a candidate who can focus on taking back the White House, rather than swatting at a growing number of scandals, Heye said. Once a viable candidate emerges, Heye suggested that will make a difference in who Republicans choose to support. For Biden, “you have the advantage of time,” but that will only last so long, he said. “The numbers say there’s no way Joe Biden can win re-election unless he’s running against Donald Trump.”

Biden’s challenge is to show (or remind) voters what he has done during his first term to improve their lives and the country.

The PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a survey between April 17 and April 19 that polled 1,291 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points and 1,176 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

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